Welcome to NYC real estate in 2026

From skyline wars to building on water, a look at the big real estate projects and trends that may be at the forefront of the industry in a decade

Needless to say, New York has changed a lot in the last decade.

And 10 years from now, in 2026, there will undoubtedly be a host of new people, projects, neighborhoods and technologies dominating the conversation.

Who will be the hot developer of the day? Where will the next Billionaires’ Row be? And what project will be capturing headlines?

Looking at the current pipeline of development doesn’t by itself reveal what the New York City real estate industry will be buzzing about in 2026. The kinds of large-scale projects that will reshape the future of the city are likely only in their infancy today — or not on the drawing board at all.

“We’re looking at things that aren’t on peoples’ radar right now,” said Jeremy Shell, the head of acquisitions and finance for TF Cornerstone. “We’re always looking 10 years out. Often that’s the kind of timeline we have to be working with because that’s how long it takes to buy the land, get entitlements, plan it and develop it.”

To be sure, there are myriad factors that will shape New York City development in the next decade, from the fate of the 421a tax abatement program to the proposedMidtown East rezoning. There’s also, of course, political forces at the federal, state and city level. And if history is any indication (hint: it is), any decade-ahead predictions must factor in the likelihood of another economic recession.

This month, The Real Deal looked at some of the big issues that experts think could be at the forefront of the industry in 2026.

In the skyline wars, East Midtown strikes back

With office construction surging at Hudson Yards and the World Trade Center, the Far West Side and Lower Manhattan have recently grabbed momentum from Midtown East, where the office stock is primarily made up of older, albeit classic, buildings.

But by 2026, all that could change as the city pushes a proposal, started under the Bloomberg administration, to rezone a 73-block area bordered by Fifth and Second avenues between East 39th and East 57th streets. It may be hard to imagine given all of the false starts, but when the plan (finally) gets approved — and observers say it’s inevitable given the area’s aged office supply — Midtown East will be a hotbed of new office development.

Under the proposed rezoning, large areas around Grand Central Terminal could be granted greater density, paving the way for developers to build soaring skyscrapers. The latest plan also calls for owners who want to construct bigger projects to contribute toward transit-related upgrades.

The city has already given the green light to SL Green to develop the 1-million-square-foot One Vanderbilt, which when completed by 2020 will rise 1,500 feet and be the tallest tower in the neighborhood since the Chrysler Building topped out at 1,050 feet in 1930.

Even more critically perhaps, sources say a rezoning could create competition that would encourage owners of existing buildings to upgrade.

“There are architecturally distinctive buildings of 1 million square feet or more that deserve to be repopulated in the 21st century but need an infrastructural overhaul,” said Michael Cohen, president of commercial brokerage Colliers International tri-state operations. “Some buildings are air conditioned with one on/off switch. Somebody needs to come up with a way to replace these buildings’ HVAC plans with more energy efficiency and a more tenant-controlled environmental system.

“That day of reckoning is coming,” he added.

Read more…http://therealdeal.com/issues_articles/welcome-to-nyc-real-estate-in-2026/

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