House prices in Spain to fall in 2023 and 2024

Will Spanish property prices fall after 2022? What’s Spain’s property market forecast for 2023. Bankinter’s analysis and markets department, headed by Ramón Forcada, has the answers, and believes that residential house prices in Spain will fall by 3% in 2023 and by another 2% the following year, in line with the main world economies. We have all the details of how house prices in Spain are set to fall in 2023 and 2024.

An exception to this fall in prices could be the US, but Spain will continue the downward trend. Bankinter believes that although it will not be a severe adjustment, it is a change in trend that should be kept “very much in mind”, especially given the “direct and notable” influence on private consumption.

The bank has published its quarterly strategy report for the fourth quarter of the year, in which it details that the markets are facing an “adjustment process in the face of sticky inflation that is forcing central banks to accelerate and extend rate hikes”, which puts the economic cycle at risk.

Bankinter’s analysis and markets department has stressed that the war in Ukraine will be a destabilising factor that the market will have to live with for years, with “enormous” consequences such as regionalisation, the availability of raw materials and other geo-strategic challenges. “With all that at stake, the likelihood that this issue will be closed in the short term and stop putting pressure on inflation is low,” he believes.

Thus, in such a complex context, the bank expects the markets to bottom out between December 2022 and February 2023 and not before, with the result that subsequently “the market will stabilise and start to improve, but it will have to finish breaking down before it starts to recover”.

Bankinter therefore believes that any entry level below 3,700 points of the S&P500 index implies “an assumable risk of error”. The economic recovery will begin after the stock markets rebound, which, according to the bank, is between three and six months ahead of that moment.

Filed under: Headlines by Wendy Jackson
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