Miami Real Estate Market 2022: Prices, Trends, Forecasts

South Florida’s housing market is strong. Home prices continue to climb and inventory remains low. It is a seller’s market with many sellers getting top dollar. After getting hammered by the pandemic, the Miami and South Florida housing markets bounced back in July 2020. The demand for South Florida real estate has been increasing since then. The Miami real estate market continues to break records due to pent-up demand and low mortgage rates which continue to fuel real estate transactions.

It is also because more people and businesses in the United States are relocating to South Florida from high-tax, high-density areas (no income tax, pro-business). Miami-Dade County real estate ended its historic 2021 with myriad year-end records including the most all-time annual total home sales, highest annual total dollar volume, most single-family home sales, most condo transactions, and more, according to the MIAMI Association of Realtors (MIAMI) and the Multiple Listing Service (MLS) system.

Miami’s hot housing market, fueled by domestic and international homebuyers, ended 2021 with 39,394 existing total home sales, up 49.5% from the 26,345 transactions in 2020 and 31.1 percent from the previous annual record of 30,041 transactions in 2013. Miami’s dollar volume of sales will reach $30.3 billion in 2021, a 103.4 percent annual increase.

As of April 2022, Miami real estate posts the 7th-highest total home sales month in history. The total economic impact of a typical Florida home sale is $90,300, according to NAR. Miami-Dade County sold 3,445 homes in April 2022 and had a local economic impact of $311 million. Miami total dollar volume totaled $2.8 billion in April 2022. The dollar volume of single-family homes decreased by 28.53 percent annually, from $1.8 billion to $1.3 billion. The dollar volume of condominiums decreased by 6.59 percent annually, from $1.7 billion to $1.5 billion.

The median price of a single-family home in Miami-Dade County increased by 9.7 percent annually, from $515,000 to $565,000. The median price of a single-family home in Miami has increased for 125 consecutive months, the longest streak on record. The median price of existing condominiums increased by 20% annually, from $325,000 to $390,000. The median price of condominiums has increased in 127 of the last 131 months.

According to Realtor.com, in April 2022, the median listing home price in Miami-Dade County, FL was $525K, trending up 19.6% year-over-year. The median listing home price per square foot was $390. The median home sold price was $480K. Homes in Miami, FL sold for approximately the asking price on average. The sale-to-List Price Ratio was 100%. Ideally, a buyer would prefer a sale to ask price ratio that’s closer to 90% while a seller would always prefer scenarios that can yield a ratio of 100% or higher.

The Miami metropolitan area is the seventh-largest metropolitan area in the United States and the 72nd largest metropolitan area in the world. The metropolitan area includes the City of Miami (the financial and cultural core of the metropolis), Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach counties which are the first, second, and third most populous counties in Florida. Greater Miami includes a larger area defined by the United States Census Bureau as the Miami-Port St. Lucie-Fort Lauderdale Combined statistical area.

This larger area includes Martin, Saint Lucie, and Indian River counties to the north of Palm Beach County. The typical value of homes in Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach Metro is $430,068. This value is seasonally adjusted and only includes the middle price tier of homes. Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach Metro home values have gone up 28.1% over the past year and Zillow predicts they will rise 16.8% in the next twelve months. We will mainly focus on the housing markets of Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach counties.

Miami-Dade County Housing Market Trends

Miami-Dade, with 2,716,940 people in 2019, is the seventh most populous county in the United States. In Miami-Dade, the housing affordability crisis is getting worse. It is a strong market according to the latest stats released by the MIAMI Association of Realtors. The median percent of the original list price received for single-family homes was 100% in April 2022, up 2% from last year (Source: MIAMI Association of Realtors).

According to the MIAMI Association of Realtors (MIAMI) and the Multiple Listing Service (MLS) system, Miami-Dade County recorded its seventh-highest total existing home sales month in history and its second-best April sales month in history. The total number of home sales declined from April 2021 to April 2022 (3,445 in April 2022 vs. 3,960 in April 2021) but was much greater than every other April besides April 2021.

In April 2022, the typical price of a single-family home in Miami-Dade County climbed by 9.7 percent annually, from $515,000 to $565,000. The median price of a single-family home in Miami has increased for 125 straight months, the longest trend on record. The median price of existing condominiums climbed by 20% annually, from $325,000 to $390,000. The median price of condominiums has climbed in 127 of the last 131 months.

Months’ supply of inventory is down since July 2019 for single-family, reflecting strong demand. Months’ supply of inventory for single-family homes decreased 13.6% to 1.9 months, which indicates a seller’s market. Inventory for existing condominiums decreased 67.6% to 2.3 months, which also indicates a seller’s market. A balanced market between buyers and sellers offers between six- and nine-months supply.

Broward County Housing Market Trends

Broward County is also a seller’s real estate market. Lack of inventory in certain price points is impacting sales, particularly for single-family homes. Since July 2019, the months’ supply of inventory for single-family homes has decreased, indicating high demand. Total house sales in Broward declined by 12.9 percent annually, from 4,006 to 3,489.

Existing condo sales in Broward declined by 11 percent annually, from 2,224 to 1,980. Sales of single-family homes declined 15.3 percent annually, from 1,782 to 1,509. However, Broward single-family luxury transactions increased 11.4% year-over-year to 245 sales in April 2022. Demand for Broward real estate is at all-time highs.

Inventory for Broward single-family homes (1.2 months) and condos (1.3 months) are low. Locally, the greater share of Broward luxury sales is also part of the reason for the large year-over-year increase in median prices Broward County single-family home median prices increased 20.7% year-over-year in April 2022, increasing from $464,000 to $560,000. Existing condo median prices increased 11.4% year-over-year, from $220,000 to $245,000.

Palm-Beach County Housing Market Trends

Palm Beach County lies directly north of Broward County and Miami-Dade County. It is ranked 18th on Bloomberg’s latest list of the richest places in the country, based on U.S. Census data for average household income. According to a 2019 census report, the county had a population of 1,496,770, making it the third-most populous county in the state of Florida and the 25th-most populous county in the United States. Palm Beach County is also a seller’s real estate market.

Real estate in Palm Beach remains in a high-demand, low-supply market, but there are indications of a supply increase. In April 2022, the number of active listings for single-family homes in Palm Beach fell by only 2.5% year-over-year. This is a positive sign, as rising interest rates are anticipated to increase days on market in the coming months.

Despite higher mortgage rates, a lower supply, and higher sale prices, total closed sales in Palm Beach in April 2022 performed similarly to the period preceding the pandemic. Total home sales in Palm Beach County decreased by 26.2% annually, from 4,006 to 2,956. Sales of existing condos in Palm Beach decreased by 27 percent annually, from 2,017 to 1,472.

Sales of single-family homes decreased by 25.4% year-over-year, from 1,989 to 1,484. Compared to the record-setting 2021 market, which benefited from 2.5% mortgage rates, increased supply, and pandemic-driven demand, sales decreased. Palm Beach existing condo sales priced between $400K to $600K decreased 4.7% year-over-year to 201 transactions in April 2022. Palm Beach single-family homes priced between $400K to $600K decreased 26.5% year-over-year to 396 transactions in April 2022.

Since July 2019, the months’ supply of inventory for single-family homes has decreased, indicating strong demand. The inventory of single-family homes remained unchanged at 1.4 months, indicating a seller’s market. Existing condominium inventory decreased by fifty percent to 1.1 months, indicating a seller’s market. A market in equilibrium between buyers and sellers has a six- to nine-month supply.

Miami Real Estate Market Predictions 2022-2023

What are the Miami real estate market predictions for 2022 & 2023? Let us look at the price trends recorded by Zillow over the past few years. Since the last decade (June 2012), the median home price in Miami-Dade County has appreciated by nearly 155% (Zillow Home Value Index). The typical value of homes in Miami is $441,318. This value is seasonally adjusted and only includes the middle price tier of homes. Miami-Dade County home values have gone up 24.5% over the past year.

According to NeighborhoodScout’s data, Miami real estate appreciated 166.91% over the last ten years, which is an average annual home appreciation rate of 10.32%, putting Miami in the top 10% nationally for real estate appreciation. In the last twelve months, Miami appreciation rates continue to be some of the highest in the U.S., at 21.74%. Miami appreciation rates in the latest quarter were at 8.34%, which equates to an annual appreciation rate of 37.77%. All these figures corroborate experts’ positive forecasts for Miami’s housing market.

If mortgage rates remain low, it will continue to bolster the home buying activity and pull home prices up. For sellers, now is the opportune time to put their Miami homes up for sale. The pricing of homes is trending higher and is more attractive for sellers in the current phase.

Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach Metro home values have gone up 28.1% over the past year and Zillow predicts they will rise 16.8% by April 2023.
Miami-Dade County home values have gone up 24.5% over the past year and will continue to rise in the next twelve months due to the supply-demand imbalance.
Palm Beach County home values have gone up 34.5% (current value = $452,810) over the past year and will continue to rise in the next twelve months due to the supply-demand imbalance.
Broward County home values have gone up 27.7% (current value = $397,189) over the past year and will continue to rise in the next twelve months due to the supply-demand imbalance.
The typical home value of homes in Florida (statewide) is $378,104 (middle price tier of homes).
Florida home values have gone up 33.1% over the past year and will continue to rise in the next twelve months.

These numbers can be positive or negative depending on which side of the fence you are — Buyer or Seller? Economist Ken Johnson found that homes in the Tri-County area are overpriced by 20 percent. This means that properties are over-valued by the highest level in eight years. However, this doesn’t mean that the coronavirus crisis will cause the South Florida housing market to crash. First, the Miami housing market was 60 percent overpriced during the 2008-2009 housing market collapse. Twenty percent is easily corrected without wiping out a lot of people financially.

Second, the area offers stronger average incomes than it did twelve years ago. More people can afford their homes even if their incomes fall ten to thirty percent or can continue to make payments if one adult in the household is unemployed. Furthermore, the greater Miami metro area is in a stronger position than during the last financial crisis. First, there is no subprime mortgage crisis this time. Second, the Miami real estate market had record low delinquencies before the coronavirus pandemic exploded.

This will prevent a glut of houses for sale that will depress the housing market. Another contributing factor is the massive rental market in the Miami area. More than two-thirds of people in the area rent instead of owning. For comparison, roughly two-thirds of Americans own their home. This creates massive pent-up demand for local real estate. We can expect the South Florida housing market to be bolstered by would-be homeowners who have jobs to take advantage of declining real estate prices.

With an average monthly rent of 2400 dollars a month in Miami and 2000 in the Miami suburbs, those who can land a house for that monthly payment and afford it will take it. This is why homes in the 300,000 to 400,000 are a seller’s market. There hasn’t been much inventory growth in this price range, which includes the median price point for homes in the Miami real estate market. Builders were too busy building condos, apartment buildings, and luxury homes, instead.

Real estate market forecasts given in this article are just an educated guess and should not be considered financial advice. Real estate prices are deeply cyclical and much of it is dependent on factors you can’t control. Many variables could potentially impact the value of a home in Miami in 2022 (or any other market) such as big changes in the distressed, new-construction, or luxury home segments. There are also a wide variety of economic and political factors that can and do impact real estate markets. Most of these variables are difficult to predict in advance.